July 14, 2017
The Uninhabitable Earth, Annotated Edition
We published “The Uninhabitable Earth” on Sunday night, and the response since has been extraordinary — both in volume (it is already the most-read article in New York Magazine’s history) and in kind. Within hours, the article spawned a fleet of commentary across newspapers, magazines, blogs, and Twitter, much of which came from climate scientists and the journalists who cover them.
Some of this conversation has been about the factual basis for various
claims that appear in the article. To address those questions, and to
give all readers more context for how the article was reported and what
further reading is available, we are publishing here a version of the
article filled with research annotations. They include quotations from
scientists I spoke with throughout the reporting process; citations to
scientific papers, articles, and books I drew from; additional research
provided by my colleague Julia Mead; and context surrounding some of the
more contested claims. Since the article was published, we have made
four corrections and adjustments, which are noted in the annotations (as
well as at the end of the original version). They are all minor, and
none affects the central project of the story: to apply the best science
we have today to the median and high-end “business-as-usual” warming
projections produced by the U.N.’s “gold standard” Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change.
But the debate this article has kicked up is less about specific facts than the article’s overarching conceit. Is it helpful, or journalistically ethical, to explore the worst-case scenarios of climate change, however unlikely they are? How much should a writer contextualize scary possibilities with information about how probable those outcomes are, however speculative those probabilities may be? What are the risks of terrifying or depressing readers so much they disengage from the issue, and what should a journalist make of those risks?
I hope, in the annotations and commentary below, I have added some context. But I also believe very firmly in the set of propositions that animated the project from the start: that the public does not appreciate the scale of climate risk; that this is in part because we have not spent enough time contemplating the scarier half of the distribution curve of possibilities, especially its brutal long tail, or the risks beyond sea-level rise; that there is journalistic and public-interest value in spreading the news from the scientific community, no matter how unnerving it may be; and that, when it comes to the challenge of climate change, public complacency is a far, far bigger problem than widespread fatalism — that many, many more people are not scared enough than are already “too scared.” In fact, I don’t even understand what “too scared” would mean. The science says climate change threatens nearly every aspect of human life on this planet, and that inaction will hasten the problems. In that context, I don’t think it’s a slur to call an article, or its writer, alarmist. I’ll accept that characterization. We should be alarmed.